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European Biopharmaceutical Review

Forecasting Development Stages to Stay Ahead of Compounds

The timeframes and regulations surrounding drug development, in addition to the added complexity of market exclusivity periods, make it extremely costly and difficult to get products to market. With lengthy development periods, pharmaceutical companies can have long stretches without generating revenue, meaning that they are heavily reliant on investment. To attract investment and influence key stakeholders, companies not only need to show that their compounds are serving an unmet need, but also show that they can create a product that will cover its own R&D costs and potentially turn a profit. The probability of getting to market is also an important factor; probability of success by therapeutic area and stage of development can vary, as can the likelihood of licensing approval in each region.

This is where forecasting comes in, providing a robust analysis of a compound’s current value, and future predicted growth encourages investors to invest in assets. Forecasts show predicted future patient population, revenue opportunity, and cash flow of an asset to measure net present value analysed against predicted changes in growth, shrinkage, risk, and competitiveness in the market. This can help create discussion leading to key questions and understanding of the opportunity as well as its assumptions.

Epidemiology-Based Forecasting

Epidemiology is the study of the factors that influence the frequency and distribution of a disease, injury, or healthrelated events and their causes in a population. Often, a disease or health-related event will have a prevalence or incidence rate expressed as a number within a given population size. These are used to determine the rate at which the disease or event is spreading, as well as the number of people who are being affected. Prevalence is the number of cases of a disease in a population, used to reference how widespread a disease is and includes newly diagnosed patients and those living with disease. It does not include individuals that have been cured or people who have died. Prevalence is used as a measure, as it takes into account length of disease, death, and cure rates. Forecasters need to be careful when selecting prevalence rates, as these may be reported as two-year, three-year, five-year, or lifetime rates.

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Jamie Blackport, CEO and co-founder at Mirador Analytics, has a commercial and medical affairs career spanning over 20 years and specialises in successfully helping small- to mid-sized biopharmaceutical companies commercially develop and launch products worldwide. He had a long tenure with AstraZeneca in the UK, Sweden, and Canada in various marketing and commercial roles. More recently, Jamie held Senior Vice President roles in Marketing and Medical Affairs with Kyowa Kirin. His passion and expertise in the strategy and execution of developing, transacting, launching, and growing medicines provides strong strategic support to companies in the drug development space.

Chris Watson is Chief Development Officer at Mirador Analytics and has over 19 years’ experience within the pharma sector, building processes and tools for strategic evaluation and enhancing efficiency. His areas of expertise include market research, forecasting, finance and supply, customer relationship management, sales force effectiveness, targeting, marketing strategy, and product launch. In his role, Chris works on analytical tool development. He also leads Mirador’s forecasting and insight projects and heads their custom bespoke model build service. Additionally, Chris works on therapy and analogue pricing analysis, insight and assumption gathering, and modelling disease flow across a range of therapeutic areas and regions.
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Jamie Blackport
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Chris Watson
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