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Future Vision

Over the past few years, certain factors have contributed to a rising trend of trial supply sourcing: an increase of studies being conducted, reduced start-up timelines, patient recruitment issues, globalisation and the escalating costs for investigational drugs and comparators. Is it even possible to predict the precise number of supplies needed to run a trial efficiently?

Looking Ahead


One option may be the use of forecasting and simulations. Consider a weather forecast, for instance: weathermen will predict high and low temperatures, humidity level, air pressure and other elements based on a number of factors. Different weather models will generally produce similar but not identical predictions, shown by minor variations in forecasts from different weather stations. Also, as you look further into the future, the predictions of each model will vary more and reliability will be reduced. This is why, if you are anticipating an event, it is necessary to check weather forecasts regularly as the day of the event approaches.

This is also the case with trial supply forecasts. Forecasting refers to techniques used to predict future outcomes, on the basis of past events and professional insights gained from observation. Methods usually rely on mathematical formulas based on facts, perceived trends, data models and, at times, expert opinions. While it is impossible to know the results of a clinical trial ahead of time with absolute certainty, forecasting provides sponsors with data-driven decisions when planning, running and closing a study.

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Praveen Chand is the Director of Professional Services and Clinical Analytics at Cenduit. He brings over 15 years of technology consulting and innovations experience, with a primary focus on pharma and life sciences translational research in clinical trials and drug development. Praveen holds an MS in Computer Science and Engineering, and a BS in Electronics and Instrumentation from GJ University of Science and Technology in Hisar, India.
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